Oilers Slightly Favored Over Panthers In Stanley Cup Final Rematch

LAS VEGAS (AP) - The Final is so close to being a tossup, Florida would likely be preferred if the Panthers had home-ice benefit.


But that edge belongs to Edmonton, which mainly describes why the Oilers are minor favorites to win the series, which begins Wednesday.


"However you desire to take a look at this pie, you might make an argument that either team could be favored," Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve said. "Home ice is definitely playing a part. You're just playing the percentages. The team that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win roughly 75% of the time."


BetMGM Sportsbook lists the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that essential 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 favorite to end up being the first Canadian team since Montreal in 1993 to raise the Stanley Cup.


Defending champion Florida, which beat Edmonton in 7 video games in 2015, is the +105 underdog.


BetMGM trading supervisor Christian Cipollini stated about 55% of the cash has actually come in on the Oilers.


Edmonton Oilers' Connor McDavid (97) speaks to media during a news conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series versus the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press by means of AP)


"I would anticipate that to probably continue," Cipollini stated. "I believe we'll probably take a little more Oilers money just because of Connor McDavid, however this is a rematch. Florida won in 2015, so I think we will end up getting an even forecast."


Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, doesn't purchase the Oilers must be favored.


"You do not see rematches frequently in the Cup Final," Smith said. "When you do, you always ask yourself the apparent question: Are these two groups better or even worse than they were in 2015? I 'd say Florida is a better version of themselves from in 2015. Edmonton (is) a little even worse than last year, particularly when you look at no Zach Hyman available for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, but how healthy is he going to be?


"I offer the edges to Florida based off of they have actually been playing better, sound defense. I believe they're a tighter team than they were last year."


Edmonton's captain ended up being the second skater and sixth gamer to be granted the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while using the losing group.


McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of colleague Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 preferred at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, giving him a chance to make even more history even if the Panthers win.


"Are they truly going to give McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in losing efforts?" Cipollini asked. "He is the favorite due to the fact that of the points scored and there's already a precedent that they might give it to him here, but that's something to watch as the video games get going. If there is a Florida gamer that isn't really sticking out ... there is a real world where it might be him once again in a losing effort."


Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has actually long been considered as a weak point on the roster, a reputation that seemed sealed when he was benched 2 video games into the playoffs.


But Skinner is a major reason Edmonton is still playing. He has allowed one or absolutely no goals in 5 of his previous seven starts, 3 of them nothings.


Another fantastic run in the internet could put Skinner, listed +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.


"I would not have actually told you this was sustainable in the past," Smith said of Skinner's hot play. "Now, with one series left, it certainly is sustainable."


Florida is making its 3rd consecutive look in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which tiredness could finally capture up to the Panthers. Or they could just be on a heater having won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.


Shreeve said the metrics indicate a Panthers champion and though either outcome would be fine with Caesars, a Florida triumph would be better.


"I put on ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one," Shreeve said. "In 2015 was a bit harder due to the fact that more people liked Florida, however individuals are all about Edmonton this postseason, which I like."


Because this series apparently could go in either case and Oklahoma City is heavily favored over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that could increase betting interest in the Stanley Cup Final.


"I believe it assists the NBA is getting the less sexier match," Shreeve stated. "The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things remain tight, it has a possibility to go 6 or seven video games, which would help."


AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl


Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) take part in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press through AP)


FILE - Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov hoists the Stanley Cup after defeating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press via AP, File)