Oilers Slightly Favored Over Panthers In Stanley Cup Final Rematch

LAS VEGAS (AP) - The Stanley Cup Final is so close to being a tossup, Florida would likely be preferred if the Panthers had home-ice advantage.


But that edge belongs to Edmonton, which mostly explains why the Oilers are minor favorites to win the series, which starts Wednesday.


"However you wish to take a look at this pie, you might make an argument that either team could be favored," Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve said. "Home ice is absolutely playing a part. You're simply playing the portions. The group that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win approximately 75% of the time."


BetMGM Sportsbook lists the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that crucial 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 favorite to become the first Canadian team considering that Montreal in 1993 to hoist the Stanley Cup.


Defending champion Florida, which in 7 video games last year, is the +105 underdog.


BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini stated about 55% of the cash has actually come in on the Oilers.


Edmonton Oilers' Connor McDavid (97) speaks with media during a press conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series versus the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press via AP)


"I would expect that to most likely continue," Cipollini stated. "I think we'll probably take a little bit more Oilers cash simply due to the fact that of Connor McDavid, but this is a rematch. Florida won last year, so I think we will end up getting an even forecast."


Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, doesn't buy the Oilers must be favored.


"You do not see rematches frequently in the Cup Final," Smith said. "When you do, you constantly ask yourself the obvious question: Are these two teams better or worse than they were in 2015? I 'd state Florida is a better variation of themselves from last year. Edmonton (is) somewhat even worse than in 2015, especially when you take a look at no Zach Hyman offered for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, but how healthy is he going to be?


"I provide the edges to Florida based off of they have actually been playing much better, sound defense. I think they're a tighter group than they were in 2015."


Edmonton's captain ended up being the second skater and sixth player to be awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while playing on the losing group.


McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of teammate Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 favorite at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, providing him a chance to make even more history even if the Panthers win.


"Are they truly going to offer McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in losing efforts?" Cipollini asked. "He is the preferred due to the fact that of the points scored and there's already a precedent that they might offer it to him here, but that's something to watch as the video games start. If there is a Florida player that isn't really standing out ... there is a genuine world where it might be him again in a losing effort."


Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has actually long been deemed a weakness on the roster, a reputation that appeared to be sealed when he was benched two video games into the playoffs.


But Skinner is a significant reason Edmonton is still playing. He has actually permitted one or absolutely no goals in 5 of his past seven starts, three of them nothings.


Another terrific run in the net could put Skinner, listed +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.


"I would not have told you this was sustainable previously," Smith said of Skinner's hot play. "Now, with one series left, it certainly is sustainable."


Florida is making its 3rd consecutive appearance in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which fatigue might lastly catch up to the Panthers. Or they could simply be on a heater having won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.


Shreeve stated the metrics point to a Panthers championship and though either outcome would be great with Caesars, a Florida triumph would be much better.


"I wear ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one," Shreeve said. "Last year was a bit tougher because more people liked Florida, however people are everything about Edmonton this postseason, which I like."


Because this series apparently could go in any case and Oklahoma City is heavily favored over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that might increase wagering interest in the Stanley Cup Final.


"I believe it helps the NBA is getting the less sexier match," Shreeve said. "The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things stay tight, it has a chance to go six or 7 video games, which would assist."


AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl


Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) take part in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press by means of AP)


FILE - Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov raises the Stanley Cup after defeating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press via AP, File)