Oilers Slightly Favored Over Panthers In Stanley Cup Final Rematch

LAS VEGAS (AP) - The Stanley Cup Final is so close to being a tossup, Florida would likely be if the Panthers had home-ice advantage.


But that edge belongs to Edmonton, which largely describes why the Oilers are small favorites to win the series, which starts Wednesday.


"However you want to take a look at this pie, you might make an argument that either team might be favored," Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve stated. "Home ice is certainly playing a part. You're simply playing the percentages. The team that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win approximately 75% of the time."


BetMGM Sportsbook lists the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that essential 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 preferred to end up being the first Canadian team considering that Montreal in 1993 to hoist the Stanley Cup.


Defending champ Florida, which beat Edmonton in seven games last year, is the +105 underdog.


BetMGM trading supervisor Christian Cipollini said about 55% of the cash has been available in on the Oilers.


Edmonton Oilers' Connor McDavid (97) speaks with media during a press conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press through AP)


"I would anticipate that to probably continue," Cipollini stated. "I believe we'll probably take a bit more Oilers cash just because of Connor McDavid, however this is a rematch. Florida won last year, so I think we will wind up getting an even forecast."


Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, does not purchase the Oilers need to be preferred.


"You do not see rematches too typically in the Cup Final," Smith stated. "When you do, you always ask yourself the obvious question: Are these 2 teams much better or worse than they were in 2015? I 'd say Florida is a much better variation of themselves from in 2015. Edmonton (is) slightly even worse than last year, particularly when you look at no Zach Hyman readily available for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, however how healthy is he going to be?


"I offer the edges to Florida based off of they've been playing better, sound defense. I think they're a tighter group than they were in 2015."


Edmonton's captain ended up being the second skater and sixth player to be awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while playing on the losing group.


McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of colleague Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 favorite at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, offering him a possibility to make even more history even if the Panthers win.


"Are they really going to provide McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in losing efforts?" Cipollini asked. "He is the favorite because of the points scored and there's currently a precedent that they could offer it to him here, but that's something to enjoy as the games get going. If there is a Florida player that isn't truly standing apart ... there is a real life where it might be him once again in a losing effort."


Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has actually long been deemed a weakness on the lineup, a reputation that appeared to be sealed when he was benched 2 video games into the playoffs.


But Skinner is a major reason Edmonton is still playing. He has allowed one or no objectives in 5 of his past 7 starts, three of them shutouts.


Another fantastic run in the net might put Skinner, noted +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.


"I would not have told you this was sustainable before," Smith stated of Skinner's hot play. "Now, with one series left, it definitely is sustainable."


Florida is making its third successive look in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which tiredness might finally catch up to the Panthers. Or they might merely be on a heater having actually won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.


Shreeve said the metrics point to a Panthers champion and though either result would be fine with Caesars, a Florida victory would be better.


"I wear ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one," Shreeve stated. "Last year was a little bit tougher due to the fact that more individuals liked Florida, however people are all about Edmonton this postseason, which I like."


Because this series apparently could go in any case and Oklahoma City is heavily favored over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that could increase betting interest in the Stanley Cup Final.


"I believe it helps the NBA is getting the less sexier match," Shreeve stated. "The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things stay tight, it has a chance to go six or 7 games, which would help."


AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl


Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) participate in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series versus the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press through AP)


FILE - Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov hoists the Stanley Cup after beating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press by means of AP, File)